"...The Servian soldier, like the Greeks, was firmly persuaded that in Macedonia he would find compatriot men who could speak his language and address him with "jivio" or "zito". He found men speaking a language different from him, who cried hurrah! The theory he had learned from youth of the existence of a Servian Macedonia and a Greek Macedonia naturally suffered, but his patriotic conviction that Macedonia must become Greek or Servian remain unaffected. Accordingly, he acted upon this basis."39

"Perhaps the actual short-term question for Europe is how far it is going to allow a Serbian-Greek stranglehold on Macedonia to develop."40

The Greco-Serbian political tandem, latent for a Greco-Serbian conspiracy to carve up the Republic of Macedonia, is the gravest threat to the security of that republic, which has no comparable military power to confront either country. Greece and Serbia are once again warming their relations, and at a time when Serbia is the target of comprehensive

United Nations sanctions. Greece has been caught many times in gross violation of the UN sanctions imposed on Serbia and its ally Montenegro.
Serbia's president Milosevic visited Athens just before the UN Security Council resolved to implement the sanctions and embargo on Serbia and Montenegro. Southern Cyprus came on the scene as an issue after that visit. "Vreme", the Belgrade newspaper which opposes the aggressive course taken by Milosevic in Bosnia-Herzegovina, asked the question of whether the departure of Slobodan Milosevic for Athens had anything to do with the extraction of Serbian capital to Southern Cyprus, in order to turn around the UN embargo on Serbia.41 Serbia concentrated some unknown quantity of its international reserves in Southern Cyprus before the commencement of the UN embargo.

On the other side, the former Greek prime minister Constantine Mitsotakis thanked the Serbian leader for his "understanding" on Greece's policy toward Macedonia during his visit to Belgrade in April, which took place at the peak of the carnage in Bosnia in 1992.42

Greece now has no ally in the Balkans other than Serbia. Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic even proposed the formation of a confederation between "Yugoslavia" and Greece in an interview on June 23, 1992 in Belgrade for the Greek commercial television network "Antenna".43 Milosevic frequently talks about "Our southern neighbour, Greece", disregarding the Republic of Macedonia. It is difficult to imagine a Greco-Serbian confederation without the destruction of Macedonia. Meanwhile, Greek diplomats do not hesitate to say that, if the events get out of control in Kosovo, they expect military intervention on the part of Serbia in the Republic of Macedonia also.

The infant Republic of Macedonia is now being squeezed in an economic blockade by Greece and Serbia. The Greek blockade, which has shut off Macedonia's access to the Greek port of Thessaloniki, formerly the entry point for Macedonia's oil supplies, has cost the little Balkan state hundreds of millions of dollars.

Within Greece, an extremely bitter nationalist campaign has been launched by the state and much of the press. Newspapers in editorials and articles threaten the Republic of Macedonia, which some Greeks call the "Skopjian Republic", with military invasion. "Macedonia was Greek and is Greek", "Macedonia is ours", "Macedonia is Greek since ever", "Macedonia is one and Greek" appear on walls throughout the country."44

Greece and Serbia are two countries in full support of each other's greed for Balkan territory. Greece supports Serbian claims on Kosovo, and Serbia is "sensitive" to the claims of Greece with respect to the Republic of Macedonia.

The Greco-Serbian invasion plan of the Republic of Macedonia, more than a future action program or an internal political consumption issue in the two countries, has already begun to be put into practice. In late 1992 and during the first months of 1993, Greece and Serbia massed troops on their borders with the Republic of Macedonia. The situation was so grave that in mid-December 1992, President Bush warned Serbia against any aggression in Kosovo and Macedonia.

The Greek-Serbian invasion and occupation plans were revealed in the Slovene daily "Delo" on November 21, 1992.45 These plans, according to "Delo", were set up a year previously and were already published in the newspaper "Slobodna Dalmacija" on January 2 and 16, and April 23, 1992.

Due to the fact that the situation in the former Yugoslavia did not develop as expected in Athens and Belgrade, the Third Section of the Security Department of the Yugoslav Armed Forces under the leadership of Milan Milosevic and the head of the Secret Police, Nedeljko Boskovic, drafted the plans together with Greek officers. The plans were known under the code names "Old Serbia" and "The Bridge". According to these plans, ethnic strife would be the pretext for the Greco-Serbian occupation. The specific target is the delicate relations between Albanians and Macedonians: conflict between Macedonians and Albanians would be provoked to erupt into intercommunal violence.

This would lead the "Society of Serbs and Montenegrins in Macedonia" to ask for "help" from the Serbian Army, which would intervene to "protect the Serbians in the Republic of Macedonia" (There are about 39,000 Serbians in the Republic of Macedonia). Serbs, who constitute 2 per cent of the Macedonian population, had already started to complain about "discriminatory treatment" in that republic which they describe as an "artificial state".

Troops would be sent to the Macedonian border cities of Kumanovo and Tetovo. For coordination of the activities with the Greek side, high-ranking Greek officers have paid frequent visits to the head of the Security Department of the Serbian Army, Nedeljko Boskovic, in Belgrade. He reportedly explained to them that "in case of war, Serbia will accept Greek military penetration of Macedonia to the Kicevo - Makedonski Brod - Prilep - Negotin - Strumica - Novo Selo line. Struga would also belong to Greece."

Greek occupation plans for the Republic of Macedonia were also drafted. The strategic passages along the Vardar River would be occupied through a "lightening operation in the first instance". The indications of the Greek war preparations on the Albanian and Macedonian borders in the period to the end of 1993 were as follows:

- The presence of the Greek battalions in Northern Greece was reinforced, all leave permits were lifted, and armoured vehicles and new divisions were transferred to the border areas with the Republic of Macedonia and Albania beginning in December 1992.

- Engine-drivers, technical communications personnel, fortification and mine-sweeping operators were sent to the border area.

- An armoured mechanized division, including tanks, was stationed in Polikastro, which is 17 kilometres from the border.

- Inexperienced soldiers along the border with the Republic of Macedonia were replaced by more experienced and professional soldiers.
- The commando divisions in the region were reinforced.

- The divisions in the Florina region, reinforced by the additional divisions shifted from the southern and central regions of Greece, were put on alert.

- Security precautions in the divisions were increased.

- The documents of the reserve soldiers were changed for 1 year, which were normally changed for 6 to 10 years. The lists of reserve soldiers were actualized.

- In order to carry out intelligence operations in Northern Greece and to create paramilitary forces, teams including two civilians each were formed.

- Long barrel guns were distributed to selected people in the border areas with Albania and the Republic of Macedonia.

- The gendarmerie patrols in Western Thrace during the nights increased twofold.

The first and second phases of the Greco-Serbian plan were completed. In the first week of November 1992, Macedonian police chased and arrested "illegal cigarette trader" ethnic Albanians, which caused large scale demonstrations of Albanians and clashes with Macedonians. The Macedonians and Albanians were successfully pitted against one another.46

As the political instability climbs, the Macedonian economy worsens.

Due to the application by Macedonia of the UN embargo on Serbia, and the Greek economic blockade of Macedonia, about half of the factories in the country are now inactive, and unemployment climbs.

Serbian Major-General Miroslav Radmonovic has already declared that "We will use all means at our disposal to answer those who attack our soldiers or the Serbian population anywhere, including Macedonia." So fabricated attacks against the Serbian soldiers in the Republic of Macedonia and Kosovo could be a pretext for the Serbian army invasion.
The third phase of the Greco-Serbian plan would likely be put into effect as soon as the pretext for it is created. Greece and Serbia would partition the Republic of Macedonia along the lines mentioned above. The planned Greco-Serbian invasion of the Republic of Macedonia is very elaborate.

The corps of General Branislav Ganic, the commander of the Serbian Air Defence in Pristina, would open up the road at Gnjilane-Strezovice, cut the connection and start marching towards Skopje. The Serbian corps would be divided into two units, one of them surrounding Skopje, the capital of the Republic of Macedonia, and the other unit occupying areas around Tetovo and wherever the majority population is Albanian. Two tank divisions would march towards the border with Albania and penetrate into the Albanian territory. There the Serbian forces would unite, and quickly take over the strategic positions.

Serbia is estimated to lose 12,000 soldiers in the invasion of Albania and the Republic of Macedonia, in comparison to 100,000 to 120,000 Albanian losses. The Greek casualties in the military operation in southern Macedonia are estimated to be "negligible", because there would be no comparable Macedonian army to confront the advance of the Greek armed forces.

After the warning by the US President and international organizations in December 1992 of the danger of Serbian aggression in Kosovo and the Republic of Macedonia, a 700 member UN Peacekeeping Force and 300 plus US troops came to the Republic of Macedonia in January 1993. They were deployed along the Serbian and Albanian borders of the Republic of Macedonia.

However, the situation continues to be volatile. Recently Gerasimos Arsenis, the new Greek Defence Minister of the socialist PASOK government, stated that "The Greek defense policy includes only one Hellenism region, including Aegean, Thrace, Macedonia, Epirus, and Cyprus."

The likelihood that the Greek-Serbian plans regarding the Republic of Macedonia would mushroom into a Third Balkan War was emphasized many times by Turkey, Bulgaria, and international organizations. However, the Greek-Serbian alliance continues to be the single gravest threat to the Republic of Macedonia.

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